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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/21 10:48

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
12 to 14 cents lower; wheat futures are narrowly mixed.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
12 to 14 cents lower; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market 
is firmer at midday with the S&P 5 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 
flat. The interest rate products are firmer. Energies have crude .50 lower and 
natural gas .03 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold off 5.50.


   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from 
Monday's gains after USDA's Crop Progress report showed enough planting 
progress to ease concerns along with the second week of the forecast looking 
better for development and the end of planting. Ethanol margins continue to see 
pressure with unleaded drifting lower, even with corn easing a bit. Planting 
will have to fight some more systems this week in the center and east of the 
belt before improvement is seen. Weekly crop progress showed 70% planted versus 
71% on average with emergence at 40% versus 39% on average. The daily export 
wire had 110,000 metric tons (mt) of corn sold to Spain for old crop, and 
113,050 mt sold to Mexico split 50/50 on old and new crop. South America has 
little fresh news with little change to the weather patterns for the second 
crop in Brazil for the short term with disease issues still lingering in 
Argentina. Basis action should continue to remain mostly sideways. On the July 
chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.58 is now nearby support after we closed 
back above it Monday but are testing it again at midday with the Upper 
Bollinger Band as resistance at $4.73.


   Soybean futures are 12 to 14 cents lower at midday with broad product 
weakness and a little better than expected planting progress helping trade to 
give back some of the Monday gains so far. Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 lower and oil 
is 45 to 55 points lower. South America will continue to battle short-term 
export impediments with flooding and strikes but overall the pace should 
continue to expand into summer. Planting will have to work around further 
systems next week with progress still ahead of the average at 52% versus 49% 
with emergence at 26% versus 21% on average. Basis should remain steady to 
softer until processers have better margins to encourage them. July soybean 
futures have resistance at the $12.56 fresh high. Chart support is at the 
20-day moving average at $12.09.  


   Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with light, two-sided action so far after 
trade tested the recent highs early in the session before easing a bit. Weather 
should drift back drier for the Plains into the end of the month with temps 
near average. The dollar is holding off the lows of the range with MATIF wheat 
just short of the recent highs in two-sided trade as well. Weekly crop progress 
showed heading at 69% versus 57% on average, with good to excellent down 1% to 
49% and poor to very poor unchanged at 18%. Spring wheat is 79% planted versus 
65% on average, and 43% emerged versus 33% on average. On the KC July chart, 
support is the 20-day moving average at $6.61, with the fresh high at $7.10 as 
resistance with the upper Bollinger Band at $7.05, which we are just below.


   David Fiala can be reached at

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala

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